This is a wonderful opportunity to support the Historic Preservation Society on Edisto as well as have a great time and an opportunity to purchase some incredible items. I have been fortunate to be the winning bidder on some beautiful antique rugs, silver engraved purses from days gone by and more. Be sure to try and support them. What a great time to dress up black tie (or not) if you like and have a wonderful time in a plantation home with memories of days gone by

. Edisto Island Historic Preservation Society’s Bidding for History…An Evening at Brookland Plantation will be held on Saturday, April 24 from 7:00 – 10:00 p.m. The donation is $50 per person and reservations will be available to members only until March 15th. After that date, any remaining reservations will then be offered to the public. To see a list of auction items or other details visit www.edistomuseum.org or call 869-1954.

The remarkable stock-market recovery that began nearly a year ago may be petering out. Although the leading market indexes continued to set new recovery highs through mid January, today they are only about 2% above where they stood nearly five months ago. “The momentum has begun to wane,” says Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
——————————————————————————–
The wall of worry that bull markets traditionally climb may have grown tall enough to discourage even the most optimistic of investors. Recent government reports show that gross domestic product in the U.S. grew a solid 5.9% in the fourth quarter of 2009, but many fear that the economy, particularly the housing market, is fragile. The jobless rate remains stubbornly high, and soaring U.S. budget deficits are a growing concern. Moreover, investors worry that sagging economies in Greece, Spain and other European nations could have ripple effects around the globe.

U.S. stocks remain well above their March 9, 2009, low. Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, which closed March 2 at 1118.31, is up 65% since then and is just 2.8% below its January 19 recovery high. The market still hasn’t experienced a correction — defined as a drop of at least 10% — since beginning its recovery.

The big question now is whether the bull market is merely resting or is about to give way to a new bear market. We don’t think most people can time the market consistently well enough to make it worth trying to do so, but it is important to look at what might cause share prices to tumble. In that spirit, we look at eight areas that could presage the next bear market.

1. Weakening economic indicators. Analysts are nearly unanimous in their view that the strong growth in the fourth quarter is not sustainable. What’s less clear is whether the economy will grow moderately, minimally or return to recession. At any rate, poor results for indicators such as consumer confidence, payroll and manufacturing can be early warning signs of trouble ahead. “If we start to get a lot of disappointments on the economy, or if car sales are weaker than expected, analysts will respond pretty quickly by lowering their expectations,” says Ed Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist of Yardeni Research, of Great Neck, N.Y. (see What Could Derail the Recovery).

2. Deteriorating corporate earnings. Stock prices are based on investors’ views about future corporate profits. When investors expect profits to shrink, stock prices usually go down. Many companies were able to generate profit growth or minimize recession-induced declines the past couple of years by reducing head count and otherwise cutting costs, says David Joy, chief market strategist at RiverSource Investments, in Minneapolis. But “that’s a strategy that will only take you so far,” he says. If revenues don’t start to improve soon, companies may find it difficult to meet investors’ earnings expectations, and that could lead to sinking share prices.

3. Continued troubles in housing. The collapse of housing prices and the resulting impact on mortgage-related security played a leading role in the financial crisis and the Great Recession. The housing drama isn’t over yet, as recent declines in sales of both new and existing homes indicate. “We’re not really out of the woods yet in the housing market,” says Yardeni, who predicts many more foreclosures ahead. A slow recovery in housing will affect builders and companies that sell construction materials, as well as banks that will bear the brunt of mortgage defaults. Shaky loans will also spill over into credit cards as borrowers shift their debt to other forms of lending. All of this could spell trouble for the stock market.

4. The inevitable return of inflation. With so much slackness in the economy, consumer prices aren’t rising much nowadays. But superlow interest rates and other federal stimulus measures could be the match that ignites inflation down the road. “The government is doing some very inflationary things, and inflation always drives a down market,” says Howard Ruff, publisher of Ruff Times, an investment newsletter. With Uncle Sam running his printing presses overtime to create more money, inflation will rear its head by year’s end, says Ruff.

5. Geopolitical grimness. Political and military instability can always push a market over the edge. Investors have grown accustomed to U.S. involvement in the ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. But there are simmering threats from Iran and North Korea, as well as concerns about the stability of Pakistan. And terrorism by Al Qaeda and other groups remains a constant threat. “Terrorism is something we will always have to worry about,” Yardeni says.

6. Political shenanigans. If history is any guide, the grandstanding leading up to the midterm Congressional elections will lead to exorbitant promises that will only add to investor uncertainty. “Midterm years are very prone to selloffs,” says Hirsch. On top of that, the contentious debate over health-care reform simply won’t go away. If Congress enacts a costly health-care bill, investors will grow even more skittish about future budget deficits.

7. Bear in a China shop. The recession barely touched China. Its economy grew 8.7% in 2009, and it’s expected to expand by 9.0% this year. But China’s leaders are getting worried that an overheating economy could stoke inflation. Beijing has already raised reserve requirements for banks and ordered lending to be dialed back, with a goal of trying to make sure that economic growth stays within a range of 8% to 10%. But what’s good for China could be bad for investors. Because companies worldwide are dependent on both Chinese production and, increasingly, Chinese consumption, global stock markets, including the U.S. market, could tank if China’s growth slows too much. “If China slows, the rest of the world will slow,” says Joy.

8. PIIGS in a poke. Overstretched homeowners falling into foreclosure made their own dismal contributions to the Great Recession and the attendant bear market. Now economists are worried that entire countries could default on their debts. The European Union is scrambling to rescue Greece from falling further behind on its debts and risking expulsion from the euro zone. “Greece could very well be the tip of the iceberg,” Yardeni says. Other European countries, notably Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain — together, with Greece, known as the PIIGS — are also sparking concern for their large debt burdens. A wave of government defaults could scare investors into a bear market.

2 houses are going up for auction on March 23, 2010. Contact me asap at 843-830-8669 if you are interested in getting more information or getting registered to bid. I have all the information to register you and all information on the property.

As usual, if you know anyone interested in buying or selling on Edisto, give me a call at 843-830-8669.
Have a great month!
Marie

Charleston Symphony Designer Showhouse
March 18-April 18
Tour the two downtown homes local designers have re-designed to glean scores of ideas for adding verve to your own home. Shop for home and garden goods and fashion in the showhouse boutique, sample Lowcountry fare in its “café,” and enjoy live music in each home. A car will be raffled off, and proceeds support the CSO.
120 South Battery & 54 Gibbes St., Charleston. Monday-Saturday, 10 a.m.-4 p.m.; Sunday 1-4 p.m., except April 4 (Easter). $20; $15 advance. (843) 723-0020; www.csolinc.org

Festival of Houses and Gardens
March 18-April 17
Locals and tourist alike peek into the homes and gardens that make Charleston unique during the Historic Charleston Foundation 63rd Annual Spring Festival of Houses and Gardens. Each day features a tour of seven to 10 homes in one of the city’s historic neighborhoods. Various locations downtown, Charleston, daily except Sunday, April 4 (Easter). $45. (843) 722-3405, www.historiccharleston.org

Charleston International Antiques Show
March 19, 20 & 21
Founded in 1670, the city is an appropriate venue for the Historic Charleston Foundation’s 7th Annual International Antiques Show. Dealers from around the globe offer everything from vintage jewelry to 17th to 20th century furnishings, silver, and more. The show also has educational special events that teach vendors and collectors the ins and outs of antiques. Don’t miss the luncheon lecture March 19 featuring nationally renowned interior designer Eric Cohler ($75).
40 East Bay St., Charleston. Friday and Saturday, 10 a.m.-6 p.m.; Sunday 11 a.m.-5p.m. $15. (843) 722-3405, www.historiccharleston.org

Circa Lighting’s “Meeting the Designers”
March 25
Enjoy cocktails, shop (a portion of sales to benefit charities), and mingle with four of the country’s top interior designers at any of four Circa Lighting showrooms across the country. Designers include Eric Cohler (Charleston); Alexa Hampton (Savannah); Suzanne Kasler (Atlanta); and Randy Powers (Houston).
426 King St., Charleston. Thursday, 5-8 p.m. Free. (843) 937-5990 (Charleston) or (877) 762-2323 (nationally); www.circalighting.com

Flowertown Festival
March 26, 27, & 28
Summerville’s azaleas are in full force during the city’s annual Flowertown Festival, now in its 38th year. Revel in the blooms at their Azalea Park while browsing crafts from more than 200 vendors selling everything from pottery to glasswork and textiles. Lowcountry food, live entertainment, and a children’s area are also there for you to enjoy.
Azalea Park, Main. & 5th streets. Summerville. Friday & Saturday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m.; Sunday, 9 a.m.-4 p.m. Free. (843) 871-9622, www.summervilleymca.org/flowertown

Digging It! Spring Garden Festival
March 27
Not sure what do with your garden? Find the answer at Brookgreen Garden’s Digging It! festival. Set in a lush garden that’s inspiration enough, the event includes seminars and Lowcountry-specific advice from guest speakers and Brookgreen staff.
Brookgreen Gardens, 1931 Brookgreen Dr., Murrells Inlet. Saturday, 9:30 a.m.-5 p.m. $12 ages 13 and older; $5 ages 6-12; free for members & children 5 and younger. (843) 235-6000, www.brookgreen.org

March 31 & April 7
Spring Winefest
Azaleas, dogwoods, and wisteria blossom every spring at Middleton Place plantation and you can enjoy them all while sampling fine wines. Guests look out over the azalea hillside garden and take in the flowers’ reflections on the Rice Mill Pond as they indulge in the wine tasting.
Middleton Place, 4300 Ashley River Rd., Wednesdays, 5:30-7 p.m. $20. Reservations required. (843) 556-6020, www.middletonplace.org

Just received this update from one of my mortgage lenders:

We are nearing the 4.875% range on the 30 year fixed again. ARM rates are near lows as the 5 year ARM sits at 3.875% and the 10 year ARM is at 4.5%. With the debt problems overseas we hope to see some stabilizing in mortgages in the low 5.0% range in the coming days.

A couple of concerns came out this week regarding home sales. Existing-home sales fell 7.2% in January. Also, sales of single-family homes fell 6.9% according to the NAR. Both these numbers coupled with an even larger drop in new home sales reported earlier in the week suggest we have hit a lull after the November closing rush for the now extended tax credit.

We did see confirmation from Fed Chairmen Bernanke that rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. Many feel this could be into late 2010 to early 2011 before the Fed starts to raise short term interest rates.

Foreclosure Figures

Fourth quarter numbers by The Mortgage Bankers Association’s report on foreclosures showed fewer homeowners are starting to fall behind on their loans, compared with the third quarter. But the number of borrowers who have missed at least three payments kept growing. This could mean banks are starting to utilize the loan modification process vs.. pushing a homeowner into foreclosure. Here’s a look at some of the numbers for the last three months of 2009:

Percent of homeowners in foreclosure or delinquency: 15
Percent in foreclosure: 4.6

Percent who have missed any payments: 10.4

Percent who have missed at least 90 days of payments: 5.1

As banks work on modifications the number of new foreclosures hitting the market will slow. This will eventually draw down inventory and the healing process will begin.

You’re probably up to your neck by now in forms and paperwork as the April 15th income tax deadline approaches. Maybe you’ve already completed your taxes, paid your bill, or are awaiting your refund check. Either way, now is the perfect time to revisit the extended and expanded Home Buyer’s Tax Credit.

Why? Because now, as you calculate your tax bill or your refund, you can finally see in real terms just how beneficial a tax credit of up to $8,000 can be to your bottom line.

Here’s the basics:

Qualified 2009 and 2010 first-time home buyers can get up to 10% of the home’s purchase price or a maximum of $8,000. In November 2009, legislation extended a tax credit of up to $6,500 (or up 10% of the home’s purchase price) to long-time residents of the same primary residence if they purchase a new main home. To qualify, eligible taxpayers must show that they lived in their previous homes for a five-consecutive-year period during the eight-year period ending on the closing date of the new home.

Important details to remember:

1) You don’t have to pay it back (as long as you stay in your qualified home for at least 36 months).

2) If you qualify for the credit, you can still apply it to this year’s taxes, even if you’ve already filed your returns, or save it for your 2010 returns.

3) This is a true tax credit, not a deduction. If you qualify for the full credit, there will be an actual dollar-for-dollar reduction of up to $8,000 (or up to $6,500 for qualified repeat buyers) on your tax bill now or in 2010.

4) New income qualification limits have been put in place that expanded the pool of qualified buyers.

5) If you purchased a qualified home or plan to after reading this article, you must have a contract in place by April 30, 2010 (with closing to take place by June 30, 2010), so don’t wait!

There are, of course, other details and qualification requirements and restrictions that you’ll need to consider.

5%; 1% origination is at 4.8%; jumbo loans over $417K fixed are at 6%, 0 points or origination or at 5.85% with 1% origination. What a great time to be in real estate. You can sell 1/3 more house for the same mortgage as you could when the rates were at 7.5%. When I started in Real Estate, rates were at 16%. Great selling point to show your clients on a $400,000 mortgage at 4.8% vs. 400,000 at 6.8%, you can get alot more house today for your money. Great prices on houses. It doesn’t get any better than this for your buyers. Sell, Sell , Sell

Strong gains in existing-home sales were the predominant pattern in most states during the fourth quarter, with many more metro areas seeing prices rise from a year earlier, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Realtors ® .

Sales increased from the third quarter in 48 states and the District of Columbia; 32 states saw double-digit gains. Year-over-year sales were higher in 49 states and D.C.; all but three states had double-digit annual increases.

Total state existing-home sales, including single-family and condo, jumped 13.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1 of 6.03 million in the fourth quarter from 5.29 million in the third quarter, and are 27.2 percent above the 4.74 million-unit level in the fourth quarter of 2008. Distressed property accounted for 32 percent of fourth quarter transactions, down from 37 percent a year earlier.

Lawrence Yun , NAR chief economist, said the first-time home buyer tax credit was the dominant factor. “The surge in home sales was driven by buyers responding strongly to the tax credit combined with record low mortgage interest rates,” he said. “With inventory levels trending down over the past 18 months, we expect broadly balanced housing market conditions in much of the country by late spring with more areas showing higher prices.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage fell to a record low 4.92 percent in the fourth quarter from 5.16 percent in the third quarter; it was 5.86 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008.

In the fourth quarter, 67 out of 151 metropolitan statistical areas 2 reported higher median existing single-family home prices in comparison with the fourth quarter of 2008, including 16 with double-digit increases; one was unchanged and 84 metros had price declines. In the third quarter only 30 MSAs showed annual price increases and 123 areas were down.

The national median existing single-family price was $172,900, which is 4.1 percent below the fourth quarter of 2008; the median is where half sold for more and half sold for less. “This is the smallest price decline in over two years, with the most recent monthly data showing a broad stabilization in home prices,” Yun said.

“Because buyers are taking on long-term fixed rate mortgages, avoiding adjustable-rate products, and trying to stay well within their budgets, the price recovery process appears durable,” Yun said.

NAR President Vicki Cox Golder , owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said near-term market conditions will remain favorable. “Mortgage interest rates are expected to trend up later this year, but right now we have very good conditions with steadying home prices and favorable inventory in most areas, especially in the higher price ranges,” she said.

“The biggest issue is for repeat buyers, who will have to accelerate their buying plans if they want the expanded tax credit. Since you must have a contract in place by the end of April, the best advice is to consult a Realtor ® now about qualification criteria and options in your area,” Golder said.

Repeat buyers do not have to sell their existing home, but all buyers must occupy the property they purchase as a primary residence to qualify for the tax credit. Buyers who have a contract in place by April 30, 2010, have until June 30, 2010, to finalize the transaction to get a credit of up to $8,000 for first-time buyers and $6,500 for repeat buyers.

In the condo sector, metro area condominium and cooperative prices – covering changes in 54 metro areas – showed the national median existing-condo price was $177,300 in the fourth quarter, down 4.8 percent from the fourth quarter of 2008. Eleven metros showed increases in the median condo price from a year earlier and 43 areas had declines; in the third quarter only four metros experienced annual price gains.

Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast rose 11.1 percent in the fourth quarter to a pace of 1.03 million and are 33.6 percent higher than a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Northeast declined 5.6 percent to $234,900 in the fourth quarter from the same quarter in 2008, but with widely varying conditions.

“In the Northeast, markets with lower median prices that have avoided wide swings, such as Buffalo, are generally showing consistent price gains,” Yun said. “Even so, some of the higher cost areas are showing signs of stabilization, such as Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y., and Boston.”

In the Midwest, existing-home sales jumped 14.5 percent in the fourth quarter to a pace of 1.38 million and are 29.9 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest rose 1.1 percent to $141,100 in the fourth quarter from the same period in 2008, with the region accounting for the majority of metro areas experiencing double-digit gains.

Yun said markets with high unemployment rates in Ohio and Michigan experienced large price swings. “Big price gains in many Midwestern areas are due to a more normal range of home sales in contrast with predominately foreclosed sales a year ago,” he said.

In the South, existing-home sales rose 13.8 percent in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 2.23 million and are 28.2 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2008. The median existing single-family home price in the South was $153,000 in the fourth quarter, down 2.4 percent from a year earlier.

“Affordable markets in the South that have relatively better local economies are seeing healthy price gains, such as Houston, Oklahoma City and Shreveport, La.,” Yun said.

Existing-home sales in the West jumped 16.2 percent in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 1.38 million and are 18.2 percent above a year ago. The median existing single-family home price in the West was $227,200 in the fourth quarter, which is 8.9 percent below the fourth quarter of 2008, but with many areas showing notable gains.

“Markets in the West such as San Francisco, San Jose and Denver are showing double-digit price increases, and other markets like San Diego and Anaheim have begun to firm up,” Yun said.

The National Association of Realtors ® , “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.2 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

Avoid Foreclosure

If you know anyone considering foreclosure, please tell them to consult their attorney about alternatives such as bankruptcy, short sale, deed in lieu of foreclosure, forebearance, refinance, loan modification, second job, leasing, etc. Copy and paste this link into your browser for more information from HUD.

http://portal.hud.gov/portal/page/portal/HUD/topics/avoiding_foreclosure

Point of Sale Update

Last week, the Senate took up, debated and voted on the compromise amendment to H.3272, point of sale assessment reform. The Compromise did the following:

Eliminates point of sale assessment for 6% properties transacted in 2010;
Caps point of sale increases at 80% on 6% property in years thereafter;
Clarifies ATI triggers (corporate, lineal, easements, etc.);
Clarifies the definition for rollback millage calculation and includes millage lookback recapture provision;
Creates a study committee on the index of tax paying ability;
Clarifies that the issuance of a permit does not constitute an ATI per se;
If a property sells for less than the assessed value on the books, the burden of proof is on the assessor to prove the higher value; and
Includes disclosure language on estimated property taxes.

The Senate gave the bill second reading after nearly 7 hours of debate on the evening of February 9th. On Wednesday, the Senate took a roll call vote on third reading to the compromise amendment. The vote failed did not receive the necessary 2/3 of the Senate and failed by a vote of 28 to 13 on nearly partisan lines. We were three votes shy of the necessary 31 votes. The following day, the Senate voted by unanimous consent to recommit H.3272 to Senate Finance Committee but to allow it to retain its place on the Senate Third Reading Contested Calendar.